Beijing frets over political upheaval in Nay Pyi Taw Nian Peng, February 5, 2021

 
Given China's close cooperation with the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Tatmadaw (armed forces), it is quite difficult for China to either condemn the Tatmadaw or support the NLD. Actually, what China really cares about is the stability in Myanmar, no matter who seized power.
 
China is still fighting Covid-19, and peripheral areas like the Sino-Myanmar border are key to win the war against the virus. Late last year, a second wave of Covid-19 broke out in China's Yunnan province because of the imported cases from Myanmar.
 
Due to Myanmar's political turbulence and the following social unrest, China has been aware of the sudden influx of refugees and the increasing transmission risk of infectious diseases. That's why Mr Wang urged the Myanmar military and the NLD to safeguard political and social stability.
 
China has always pressed the military and the ethnic groups to de-escalate conflicts and promote national reconciliation and peace talks in northern Myanmar.
 
However, ethnic tensions and military conflicts in the area might now be revived and escalated. This is because hardliners within the Tatmadaw after the coup monopolised the national reconciliation process and peace talks, which were held between the government, military and armed ethnic groups.
 
Considering its decreasing influence on the Myanmar military and ethnic groups, China is now faced with more difficulties in maintaining peace and stability along the Sino-Myanmar border and handling non-traditional security issues in the border region.
 
Myanmar is a top priority in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) because many mega-projects, such as the China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), have been conducted in the country. While the BRI projects would be undermined by the social protests encouraged by Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of Myanmar's democratic government. As Khin Zaw Win, a political analyst and director of Yangon's Tampadipa Institute, warned there "will be a strong public reaction" and the situation could escalate into protests that would be ended violently.
 
Nonetheless, the Tatmadaw claimed it will take actions against the virus and promote economic recovery. Thus, the military government has to pursue Chinese vaccines, goods and capitals, especially when it is sanctioned by the West in the coming months.
 
Sino-Myanmar relations will be adversely affected by the recent political upheaval in Myanmar in the short term, the BRI cooperation and border management in particular. Yet, as some analysts predicted, the bilateral ties will be closer than ever in the long-term due to Myanmar's increasing dependence on China.